India’s steel demand is projected to increase by 7.9 per cent in 2026 to 172.4 million tonnes, making it the fastest-growing major steel market globally, according to the World Steel Association’s October 2026 Short Range Outlook. Demand is expected to accelerate further in 2027, rising by 8 per cent to reach 186.2 million tonnes.
The report attributed India’s strong growth momentum to infrastructure development, steady private real estate activity, machinery investments and automotive manufacturing. The projections highlight the contrast between India’s expanding steel consumption and a global market facing stagnation amid China’s prolonged property downturn and geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East.
Global Steel Demand to Remain Flat in 2026
The World Steel Association projected global steel demand to remain broadly unchanged in 2026 at 1,722 million tonnes compared with 2025. The market is expected to return to growth in 2027, with demand forecast to rise by 1.7 per cent to 1,752 million tonnes.
The latest projections indicate a slower recovery than previously anticipated. In April, the association had expected modest growth in global steel demand for 2026 and a stronger increase of 2.2 per cent in 2027.
Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee, said the anticipated recovery was proving slower and more gradual than expected, with almost the entire downward revision attributable to China.
India’s Infrastructure and Manufacturing Activity Support Steel Demand
India’s steel consumption outlook remains comparatively strong, supported by infrastructure construction, private real estate, machinery investment and automobile manufacturing.
The projected 7.9 per cent growth in 2026 would take Indian steel demand to 172.4 million tonnes. A further 8 per cent increase in 2027 would lift consumption to 186.2 million tonnes.
The sustained expansion reflects the importance of domestic economic activity in driving steel consumption. Infrastructure projects and construction require substantial steel inputs, while manufacturing investments and automotive production contribute to demand across industrial segments.
India’s projected performance also contrasts with the weakness in China, where declining steel consumption is expected to continue weighing on the global market.
China’s Property Crisis Continues to Weigh on Global Steel Demand
China’s steel demand is forecast to contract by 2 per cent in 2026 and decline by a further 1 per cent in 2027. According to the report, a persistent real estate downturn and negative infrastructure spending continue to offset gains in manufacturing.
The scale of China’s structural contraction is a major factor behind the revision to the global outlook. While steel demand is expected to expand in several other economies, weakness in China is limiting overall market growth.
Calcerrada said demand outside China was expected to grow by 1.5 per cent in 2026 before accelerating to 4 per cent in 2027.
He added that the recovery outside China was not necessarily weaker, but its momentum was being obscured by the scale of China’s contraction and compounded by energy-market disruptions linked to instability in the Middle East.
Developing Economies Expected to Drive a Stronger Recovery in 2027
Across developing economies excluding China, steel demand is projected to grow by 1.9 per cent in 2026 before accelerating sharply to 5.1 per cent in 2027.
The moderation in 2026 is largely linked to the Gulf Cooperation Council region, where steel demand is expected to decline by approximately 11 per cent because of deferred projects and conflict-related disruptions. The region is forecast to record an 11.3 per cent rebound in 2027.
Within the ASEAN-5 economies, steel demand is projected to expand by 5.2 per cent in 2026. Vietnam is a key contributor to the regional outlook, with apparent steel use expected to reach nearly 30 million tonnes.
These projections suggest that developing economies outside China could play an increasingly important role in supporting the next phase of global steel demand growth.
Developed Economies Set for a Steel Demand Recovery
Steel demand in developed economies is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2026 and 2.2 per cent in 2027, reflecting expectations of a broader improvement in industrial activity.
In the United States, steel demand is projected to grow by 2 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent in 2027. Investment in data centres and energy infrastructure is expected to support consumption.
The European Union, by contrast, is forecast to record a 0.3 per cent decline in steel demand in 2026, following inventory accumulation ahead of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2025. Demand is expected to recover by 3.1 per cent in 2027.
Japan and South Korea are also expected to experience gradual recoveries. Japanese steel demand is projected to rise by 0.9 per cent in 2026, while South Korean demand is expected to increase by 1.8 per cent.
World Steel Association Sees Meaningful Turnaround in 2027
The October outlook points to a more substantial recovery in global industrial activity and steel consumption in 2027, despite near-term uncertainty.
Calcerrada said one of the key messages from the latest forecasts was the reaffirmation of expectations for a meaningful turnaround in industrial activity and steel demand across developed economies next year.
However, the pace of recovery will depend on how geopolitical tensions, energy prices, trade disruptions and regional economic conditions evolve. The prolonged downturn in China’s property market remains a major constraint, while conflict in the Middle East continues to affect energy markets and project activity.
India Remains a Key Growth Market for the Steel Industry
India’s projected steel demand growth of 7.9 per cent in 2026 and 8 per cent in 2027 places it among the strongest-performing major markets in the global steel industry. Infrastructure development, real estate activity and manufacturing investment are expected to remain key drivers of consumption.
At the global level, however, the outlook remains uneven. China’s declining demand is expected to keep overall growth flat in 2026, while developing economies and a recovery in developed markets could support a stronger performance in 2027.
The latest World Steel Association forecast highlights India’s growing importance in the global steel market, even as the wider industry navigates economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
