Indian equity benchmark indices are expected to open higher on Monday, October 12, 2026, supported by a recovery in the previous trading session and a pullback in crude oil prices. Investors, however, remain cautious amid elevated US Treasury yields, a strong US dollar, continued foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows and geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
GIFT NIFTY futures were trading 0.17% higher at 22,625.50 points at around 7:53 am IST, indicating a positive opening for domestic benchmark indices. Market participants will closely monitor the September-quarter earnings season, particularly the financial results of IT major HCL Technologies, along with movements in global markets and energy prices.
NIFTY50 and Sensex Recover After Thursday’s Sell-Off
Indian equity markets staged a strong recovery on Friday, October 9, following a significant sell-off in the previous session. The NIFTY50 index closed 1.3% higher at 22,520.45, compared with its previous close of 22,231.80.
The BSE Sensex also registered gains, ending the session 1.23% higher at 72,472.33, against its previous close of 71,593.24.
The recovery followed Thursday’s market decline, which was triggered by rising global crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and concerns about potential disruptions to energy supplies and supply chains.
Although Friday’s gains improved investor sentiment, the sustainability of the recovery will depend on global market cues, institutional investor activity and upcoming corporate earnings.
Asian Markets Trade Mixed; South Korea’s KOSPI Declines
Asian equity markets presented a mixed picture during Monday’s morning session, reflecting differences in investor sentiment across the region.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced 0.69%, while China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.20%. Singapore’s FTSE index rose 0.45%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 remained closed for the Sports Day holiday.
South Korea’s KOSPI fell 1.93%, with selling pressure in major semiconductor stocks weighing on the benchmark.
The mixed performance of Asian markets could influence early trading in India. Investors will also monitor global technology stocks, interest-rate expectations and geopolitical developments for further direction.
FII Selling Continues Despite Domestic Market Recovery
Foreign institutional investors continued to sell Indian equities even as benchmark indices ended Friday’s session higher.
According to exchange data, FIIs sold capital market assets worth ₹3,568.90 crore on October 9. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased assets worth ₹4,743.26 crore across the equity exchanges.
The contrasting activity highlights the continued importance of domestic institutional buying in supporting the market amid foreign fund outflows.
Sustained FII selling can put pressure on stock prices and limit the strength of market recoveries, particularly when global investors become cautious about emerging markets. Investors will therefore watch institutional flow data closely during the coming sessions.
Crude Oil Prices Around $103 Per Barrel
Global crude oil prices remained a key factor for market sentiment on Monday. Brent crude was trading around $103 per barrel during the morning session after retreating from an intraday high of $105.63 per barrel.
The previous commodity market close was reported at $104.42 per barrel.
Prices have been influenced by escalating tensions in West Asia and uncertainty surrounding the prospects for a near-term peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Reports of attacks in Saudi Arabia have added to concerns about regional security and the reliability of energy supplies.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud said the country had demonstrated its ability to maintain reliable energy supplies and would continue investing and preparing for different challenges.
For India, which depends significantly on imported crude oil, elevated prices can increase import costs, contribute to inflationary pressures and affect corporate profitability. A sustained decline in crude prices could provide some relief to the broader economy, although geopolitical risks remain an important consideration.
US Treasury Yields and Federal Reserve Policy in Focus
US Treasury yields remained elevated, with the 10-year yield reported at 5.24% as of 5:01 pm Eastern Time, according to the supplied market information.
Comments by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller about the possibility of further interest-rate increases have added to uncertainty surrounding the US monetary policy outlook. Waller indicated that additional rate hikes could be necessary to bring inflation down, while also stating that an immediate increase was not required.
Higher US yields can make fixed-income investments more attractive relative to equities and emerging-market assets. A stronger US dollar can also increase pressure on foreign investment flows into markets such as India.
Investors will continue assessing inflation data, central bank commentary and changes in bond yields for clues about the direction of global markets.
Wall Street Ends the Week Higher
US equity markets closed Friday’s session in positive territory, supported by improving sentiment following recent volatility in technology stocks and movements in energy prices and Treasury yields.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.83% to 51,654.95. The S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 7,811.54, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.51% to close at 30,883.15.
Attention is now shifting towards quarterly corporate earnings, which could influence market direction in the coming sessions.
HCLTech Q2 Results Among Key Market Triggers
The September-quarter earnings season will remain a major domestic market trigger on Monday, with HCL Technologies among the companies scheduled to announce its Q2 FY27 results.
Investors will assess revenue growth, profitability, business demand and management guidance to determine whether the IT sector can sustain its recent resilience. The performance of other corporate heavyweights will also influence stock-specific trading activity.
Market Outlook
Indian benchmark indices are positioned for a potentially positive opening on Monday, supported by GIFT NIFTY futures and Friday’s recovery. However, persistent foreign outflows, elevated US yields, currency movements and uncertainty surrounding crude oil prices could limit gains.
Investors will closely monitor institutional flows, corporate earnings and global developments before determining the next direction of the market.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Investors should evaluate market risks and consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
