Indian benchmark indices are expected to open higher on Monday, October 12, 2026, following a strong recovery in the previous trading session. GIFT NIFTY futures gained around 20 points in early trading, signalling a potentially steady start for the NIFTY50 index as investors assess global market trends, crude oil prices and technical indicators.
Market participants will closely monitor movements across Asian markets, developments in the Middle East and the beginning of the quarterly earnings season on Wall Street. The domestic market’s direction will also depend on whether Friday’s recovery can sustain buying momentum during the new trading week.
Crude Oil Prices Fall Despite Middle East Tensions
Crude oil prices opened lower on Monday as traders appeared to look beyond renewed geopolitical concerns following an attack by Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia.
Brent crude futures declined around 1% to approximately $103 per barrel in early trading. The decline followed a 1.9% increase over the previous week.
Oil prices remain an important factor for the Indian economy because the country relies heavily on imported crude to meet its energy requirements. Sustained increases in oil prices can put pressure on India’s import bill, inflation, corporate operating costs and the broader economic outlook.
Investors will therefore monitor developments in the Middle East alongside changes in crude oil prices. Any further escalation could influence energy markets and potentially affect sentiment across Indian equities.
Asian Markets Open Mixed; Kospi Leads Declines
Asian equity markets opened on a mixed note on Monday, with benchmark indices in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan trading in negative territory.
South Korea’s Kospi recorded the sharpest decline among the indices highlighted, falling around 1.9%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index moved in the opposite direction, rising approximately 0.8%.
The mixed performance indicates that investors across the region remain cautious as they assess economic conditions, corporate earnings expectations and geopolitical developments.
For Indian markets, movements in major Asian indices could influence early trading sentiment. However, domestic corporate developments and technical levels will also play an important role in determining the direction of the benchmark indices.
Wall Street Ends Previous Week on a Positive Note
US equity markets finished the previous week with gains, providing a relatively supportive global backdrop for investors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed more than 420 points higher, while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 advanced approximately 0.6%.
Attention on Wall Street is now shifting towards the quarterly earnings season, which begins on Monday. Investors will examine company results and management commentary to assess business performance, profitability and the outlook for the coming quarters.
The earnings announcements could influence global investor sentiment and determine whether the recent strength in US equities continues.
NIFTY50 Technical Outlook: 22,200 Support and 22,700 Resistance
The NIFTY50 index staged a strong recovery on Friday, gaining more than 288 points and offering some encouragement to bullish investors after recent weakness.
On the hourly charts, the index closed above its 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), although it encountered resistance near the 50-period EMA. This suggests that the recovery has improved the short-term technical picture, but the index still faces resistance.
On the daily chart, NIFTY50 formed a bullish harami candlestick pattern. This pattern can indicate a potential reversal following a downtrend, although confirmation from subsequent trading sessions remains important.
From a technical perspective, the 22,200 level is identified as a crucial support zone. A sustained break below this level could intensify selling pressure and weaken the recovery.
On the upside, 22,700 remains an important resistance level. A decisive move above this zone could improve bullish sentiment and strengthen expectations of further recovery.
Traders will watch these levels closely to determine whether Friday’s rebound develops into a sustained upward move or proves to be a temporary recovery.
NIFTY50 Open Interest: 22,500 Puts and 23,000 Calls in Focus
Derivatives data following Friday’s sharp recovery points towards important support and resistance zones ahead of Tuesday’s weekly expiry.
The 22,500 put options added more than one crore contracts during Friday’s session and recorded the highest open interest, according to the supplied market data. High put open interest at this strike may indicate that market participants are positioning for potential support around this level.
On the other hand, the 23,000 call options recorded the highest open interest among the call strikes highlighted, suggesting a potential resistance zone.
Open interest should not be interpreted as a guarantee that an index will hold a particular level. Positions can change rapidly as market conditions evolve, and traders should consider price action, changes in open interest and other indicators together.
Market Outlook for Monday
Indian equity markets are expected to begin the week on a cautiously positive note, supported by Friday’s recovery and modest gains in GIFT NIFTY futures. However, mixed Asian markets, geopolitical uncertainty and movements in crude oil prices could influence trading sentiment.
For NIFTY50, the 22,200 support and 22,700 resistance levels will remain important technical markers, while derivatives positioning around 22,500 and 23,000 may provide additional clues about market expectations.
Investors should remain attentive to global developments and changing market conditions before making trading decisions.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or derivative. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk and should be undertaken only by individuals who understand the associated risks and have appropriate risk-management measures in place.
