Assam’s political landscape appears to be moving toward continuity, with the latest opinion polls from Matrize and Chanakya suggesting a clear advantage for the BJP-led alliance ahead of the Assembly elections. Both surveys point to a strong lead in vote share and seat projections, indicating that the ruling bloc is well placed to retain power if current trends hold.
According to the Matrize poll, the BJP+ alliance is projected to secure 46% vote share, significantly ahead of the Congress+ bloc at 36%, while Others are expected to account for 18%. The numbers suggest that the ruling alliance has managed to consolidate support across key voter groups, giving it a decisive edge in the race. For Congress, the figures reflect a credible presence, but also a clear shortfall that could limit its ability to convert support into power.
Seat projections favour ruling bloc
The advantage becomes even more pronounced when the surveys move from vote share to seat projections. Matrize estimates the BJP+ alliance could win between 92 and 102 seats, a range that would place it comfortably above the majority mark. Congress+, on the other hand, is projected to win only 22 to 32 seats, leaving it far behind in the contest. The remaining 4 to 7 seats may go to smaller players, but their impact is expected to remain limited.
Chanakya Strategies presents a slightly different but equally favourable picture for the BJP-led alliance. Its projection gives BJP+ 83 to 90 seats, Congress+ 30 to 36 seats, and Others 3 to 6 seats. Even in this estimate, the ruling bloc remains well ahead of the majority threshold, reinforcing the view that the contest is tilting decisively in its favour.
Assam remains a bipolar contest
Despite the presence of smaller parties, the polls suggest that Assam’s election will remain largely a bipolar contest between the BJP-led alliance and the Congress-led bloc. The “Others” category, while present, appears too fragmented to alter the broader outcome in a meaningful way. This reinforces the idea that the election is shaping up as a direct face-off between the two major alliances.
The Congress alliance continues to be the principal challenger, but the numbers show that it still has a substantial gap to close. For the opposition, the challenge is not only to expand its vote base but also to translate scattered support into winnable seats. That task appears especially difficult if the BJP-led alliance maintains its current organisational strength and voter momentum.
Political message from the surveys
Taken together, the two opinion polls suggest a strong trend in favour of the ruling alliance. A higher vote share, stronger seat projections and the limited reach of smaller parties all point toward electoral continuity in Assam. While opinion polls are never final and can shift with local issues, campaign dynamics and last-minute voter movement, the current picture clearly favours the BJP-led bloc.
If these projections come close to the eventual result, Assam could be heading for another term under the BJP-led alliance, with Congress forced to remain on the sidelines as the main opposition. For now, the surveys indicate one clear message: the ruling coalition enters the race with a significant head start.
